Capital Economics is a great resource.
• Activity: Third-quarter GDP growth was close to 3% annualized, but headwinds are mounting in the fourth quarter.
• Labour Market: Despite resilient payroll growth, wage growth still looks set to slow to pre-pandemic rates soon.
• Inflation: The remaining strength of core inflation is concentrated in the shelter component, but we expect shelter inflation to slow sharply from here.
• Policy: Surging long-term Treasury yields could make it less likely that the Fed will hike its policy rate any further.
•Forecasts: We still expect rates to be cut more rapidly than markets expect next year, as the economy weakens and inflation returns to target.